Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election, 8 December 2016
The Conservatives held this seat, but what does the result mean?
Opponents will point to the reduced majority. It was 34,805 in 2015 and 17,570 in 2016. This is, however, misleading. The turnout in 2015 was nearly 62,000 whilst in 2016 it was around half that at 33,000.
Percentage results may help put this in context. The 2015 and 2016 percentage share of the vote, along with the changes, are shown below. Figures are rounded.
2015 2016
Conservatives 56% 53%
UKIP 14% 16%
Liberal Democrat 6% 11%
Labour 17% 10%
On the surface, the message here seems very clear. Much remains the same but it is the Labour Party that have really declined. This is a situation in which the government is currently embroiled in a Supreme Court case that many Brexit voters would see as anti-democratic at best and traitorous at worst. This is an area of at least 60% support for Brexit.
The opportunity was therefore there for a coherent and effective opposition to make a dent, if not win. The reality is, in this part of the world the Labour Party is seen as the Liberals once were – a wishy-washy irrelevance, with no hope of winning a general election, and nothing but a (very mild) protest party. Labour is seen as being anti-Brexit and anti-Britain. It has completely lost the very people it thinks it represents. Essentially it is out of touch and has spent far too much time gazing at its own navel – and it continues so to do.
The electoral system does not favour the Lib-Dems or UKIP, but these two had nearly 30% of the vote against Labour’s 10%. This compares to UKIP and the Lib-Dems having 20% together against Labour’s 17% in 2015.
Despite electoral boundary and system issues, Labour may find itself being the third party at the next general election, or at least, not having more seats than the other opposition parties combined.